Analysis of SLOSH Model Output for Hurricane Sandy over New York Harbor

Background Information

The NOAA's Sea Lake and Overland Surge for Hurricanes Model (SLOSH) estimates storm surge height and wind speed based off historical hurricane data.  This map compares how the SLOSH model output changed over time as the hurricane Sandy approached the New York Harbor.  There are three variation of the SLOSH model used dependent on hours before landfall.  The Maximum Envelop of Water (MEOW) is used 48 - 120 hours out.  The Maximum of MEOW is issued greater than 120 hours out.  Finally the probabilistic storm surge is used less than 48 hours from landfall to locate areas most likely to experience storm surge.  

Data Sets

• Advisory Forecast Track and Warning Cone,  National Hurricane Center
• Probaboloistic Storm Surge, National Hurricane Center
• SLOSH Model Data, National Weather Service
• State Boundaries One-Million Scale, National Atlas

Methodology

MOM and MEOW files were trimmed down to fields of interest using the Editor and Delete Field tools in ArcGIS 10.1.  Fields were than displayed to compare the water level predicted for the MOM and MEOW forecast.  The examine probabilistic storm surge, file fields were also trimmed down to isolate the time period and direction Hurricane Sandy moved at landfall.  An intersect was then run to extract storm surge risk areas that intersected with the coast. 

Conclusions

The maps reveal that as a storm moves closer to land, the outputs become more detailed.  Probabilistic storm surge isolates coastal areas as being most at risk, decreasing as distance increased from the water body.

Map Links


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