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Friday, December 6, 2013

Analysis of SLOSH Model Output for Hurricane Sandy over New York Harbor

Background Information

The NOAA's Sea Lake and Overland Surge for Hurricanes Model (SLOSH) estimates storm surge height and wind speed based off historical hurricane data.  This map compares how the SLOSH model output changed over time as the hurricane Sandy approached the New York Harbor.  There are three variation of the SLOSH model used dependent on hours before landfall.  The Maximum Envelop of Water (MEOW) is used 48 - 120 hours out.  The Maximum of MEOW is issued greater than 120 hours out.  Finally the probabilistic storm surge is used less than 48 hours from landfall to locate areas most likely to experience storm surge.  

Data Sets

  • Advisory Forecast Track and Warning Cone,  National Hurricane Center
  • Probaboloistic Storm Surge, National Hurricane Center
  • SLOSH Model Data, National Weather Service
  • State Boundaries One-Million Scale, National Atlas
Methodology

MOM and MEOW files were trimmed down to fields of interest using the Editor and Delete Field tools in ArcGIS 10.1.  Fields were than displayed to compare the water level predicted for the MOM and MEOW forecast.  The examine probabilistic storm surge, file fields were also trimmed down to isolate the time period and direction Hurricane Sandy moved at landfall.  An intersect was then run to extract storm surge risk areas that intersected with the coast. 

Conclusions

The maps reveal that as a storm moves closer to land, the outputs become more detailed.  Probabilistic storm surge isolates coastal areas as being most at risk, decreasing as distance increased from the water body.


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Thursday, December 5, 2013

European Cholera Cases 1970-2011

Background Information

Cholera is a bacterial infection of  the small intestine with symptoms including diarrhea and vomiting. Transmission occurs through ingesting contaminated food and water.  The greatest risk from Cholera is dehydration and electrolyte imbalance, sometimes requiring hospitalization. Cholera poses a major threat to developing nations where there is a lack of water sanitation and doctors. In serious cases, Cholera is fatal, killing by dehydrating its host.  This analysis examines European Cholera cases from 1970 to 2011.

Data Sets
  • Cholera Continent Data: World Health Organization
  • European Country Boundaries: Global Administrative Areas  (GADM)
Methodology

Cholera data downloaded from the World Health Organization had to be formatted in Microsoft Excel before it could be manipulated in ArcGIS 10.1. The data was separated into two files: number of Cholera cases and number of deaths.  Once formatted, the Excel files were then uploaded into ArcGIS and joined to the country boundaries shapefile downloaded from GADM for mapping.

Conclusions

In Excel Cholera cases in Europe were plotted as a function of time, then compared the total number of cases to the total number of deaths.  Plotting the Cholera cases over time revealed two significant spikes in  cases.  For mapping purposes I compared the most recent 2011 data to the outbreaks in 1974 and 1994.

The 1974 peak primarily affected Western Europe, with Portugal having the maximum number of  Cholera cases.  In 1994, the total number of cases exceeded those in 1974, affecting Eastern Europe, primarily Russia and the Ukraine.  In Excel Cholera cases in Europe were again plotted as a function of time, then compared the total number of cases to the total number of deaths.  The average distribution of Cholera cases reveal high outbreaks in far western and eastern Europe.

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Populations at Risk of High Magnitude Earthquakes in California

Background Information

California is a geologically active state do to its proximity to and containment of the San Andres fault, a transform fault.  This geologic activity presents varying levels of  risk to different populations.  This study focuses on Hispanic populations, and individuals below poverty level.  Earthquake data used for this map was downloaded within five years of the 2000 and 2010 Censuses; rated a magnitude three or above on the Richter Scale.

Data Sets
  • 2000 Census Data, American Fact Finder
  • 2010 Census Data, Tiger Products
  • USGS Earthquake Archives
Methodology

To obtain earthquake frequency per county, points of earthquake occurrences were layered on top of county level Census data, then joined to their associated county using ArcGIS 10.1. In order to evaluate the earthquake risk level on the selected populations, the number of people per population type was normalized by the frequency of earthquakes within each California county.  

Conclusions

Areas of high risk are centered on highly populated counties in Southern California.  Hispanic individuals are more affected than those below poverty level do to a larger overall population.  Earthquake risk decreases from 2000 to 2010 in both population categories due to a decrease in earthquakes occurrences in 2010.   For Hispanic individuals, the areas of highest risk shift southwards.  All four maps highlight Los Angles as the county most at risk during both Census years. This high risk level is associated with the county’s proximity to the San Andres fault, high population density, and predominately urban makeup.

Map Links

ESRI Story Map: http://www.arcgis.com/apps/StorytellingSwipe/index.html?appid=106aac6b00354096ac82dcc15425fbed&webmap=af4b0df0e94b46bead1d881c436b746b

Solar Wind Energy Availability in Brazil

Background Information

With the growing energy pressures do to the controversial topical of global warming and climate change, a search for more efficient sources is a popular issue.  Two promising energy alternatives to fossil fuels include solar and wind energy due to their limited environmental effects.  This study examines optimal areas within Brazil for profitable development of wind and solar energy.

Data Sets
  • Annual Energy Consumption: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
  • Brazil Wind Data: Centro do Pesquisas de Energia Electrica (CEPEL)
Methodology

To identify areas for profitable development of solar and wind energy production, data required unit manipulation using Field Calculator.  Solar energy data was converted to power density (w/m^2) through dividing annual values by daily hours of sunlight (12).   Because the solar plates used to acquire energy do not operate at 100%, data was adjusted by a scale factor of 0.75.  Within attribute tables for wind
and solar energy, power densities greater than 300 were selected and exported into a separate raster layer.  By removing pixels outside the required bounds, the raster file was reconverted into a shape file to outline areas in black containing ideal power densities for solar and wind energy development.  Brazil wind and solar data displayed compares energy rates, to convert from power density; values were multiplied by 40km X 40km pixel areas.  

In order to compare potential energy production, locations with ideal power densities were evaluated.  Using raster layers containing pixel counts of locations meeting the 300 W/m^2 threshold, areas were calculated by multiplying by individual pixel area for wind and solar energy densities.  

Conclusions

Data reveals that there is approximately ten times more available solar energy for development.  Data used to
compare annual energy consumption in Brazil to potential energy production of solar and wind energy was converted from British Thermal Units to Watts per year.  Solar energy availability in Brazil is fairly uniform due to its proximity to the equation and the Tropic of Capricorn, allowing more direct sunlight.   Latitude also plays a role in Brazil wind energy availability.  The northern portion of Brazil is located near the doldrums where there wind dynamics are minimal extending southwards, increasing with latitude; maximum energy rates are located in Southern Brazil.  Higher wind energy rates are also concentrated along coastal areas where there the land-sea temperature difference creates a pressure gradient driving the winds.  Combined, potential solar and wind energy production does not even make 5% of Brazil's annual energy consumption.  This analysis is a gross oversimplification of solar and wind energy availability in Brazil.



Primary Production Efficiency of BRIC Countries

Background Information

The BRIC countries comprise of Brazil, Russia, India, and China; distinguished by their promising developing economies and projections to become leading global powers.  Together, these four countries makeup 40 percent of the world’s population, cover approximately a quarter of the Earth’s land area, and account for 25 percent of the global GDP.  The BRIC countries were selected for this study due to their current economic projections, contribution to the global GDP, and the significant portion of the global population they contain.

For this study three data sets were analyzed to measure how efficient a country uses it available resources for production of goods; gross domestic product (GDP), human appropriated net primary production (HANPP), and gross primary productivity (GPP).  A county's gross domestic product (GDP) is defined at the monetary value of finished goods produced.  To evaluate the usage of each country’s resources, data was pulled in to measure the available resources within that country and the amount utilized by humans.  Gross primary productivity (GPP) measure the total amount of solar energy converted to organic plant matter through photosynthesis.  Conversely, human appropriated net primary production (HANPP) measures the human usage of organic plant based material in grams of carbon.  

Data Sets
  • Global Patterns of NPP: NASA SEDAC
  • Global Patterns of HANPP: NASA SEDAC
  • Country Data: The World Fact Book (CIA)
Methodology

All data sets were loaded into ArcGIS 10.1 for manipulation, calculation, and mapping.   The methodology used in this study followed two papers written by Imhoff et al. This first step was to derive the net GDP per country from the data included in the country shapefiles.  The Spatial Analyst tool, Zonal Statistics, was used to sum GDP values to calculate the net GDP per country.   The country level total GPP and HANPP values from the acquired continuous rasterized datasets needed to be derived.  The Raster to Polygon conversion tool was used in ArcGIS 10.1 to convert continuous rasterized data to discrete datasets with country level data.  Using a common naming convention, the converted HANPP and GPP files were joined to the GDP shapefile.  In order to compare each country’s usage of resources for production purposes NPP and HANPP values were normalized by each country’s GDP, dividing grams of carbon per dollar.  Because the original data set includes all global countries, the data set was clipped down to the BRIC countries.

Conclusions

This study found Brazil and Russia to use its resources for production of goods the most efficiently.  However, using solely GDP, HANPP, and GPP is an over simplification of each country’s production efficiency since many other factors contribute the datasets.  Population size and density contributes to both the land available to vegetation, and the demand for resources to sustain a population.  The level of develop a country is at also influences the way resources are utilized, the efficiency of extracting and processing them, and the level of demand.  The type of industry a country is dominated by also influences the need and type of material used.  More developed economies like India and China have less natural resource availability, and a need to use more materials.  Climate affects the level of vegetation and habitability of land.  Brazil has a significantly higher NPP value its tropical climate indicative rainforests do to the high biomass contained within its rainforest.  Also, Russia has a large land area part of which has a harsh climate inhabitable in some locations.  To accurately evaluate a country’s production efficiency, many other factors have to be considered.  The portion focused on in this study highlights differences in each country’s economic development; out of the BRIC countries, Brazil has uses the least amount of available carbon resources for production.

Map Links

ESRI Story Map: http://www.arcgis.com/apps/Compare/storytelling_compare/index.html?appid=5ea05e9ef4ff476fa3353b529e064fe0

Sea Level Rise in the Gulf Coast States

Background Information

Sea level rise his become an issue of concern associated with the topic of global warming and climate change.  The world's largest cities are located along coastal areas; hubs for international travel, shipping, and industry.  This study focuses on examining the number of people affected by various levels of sea level rise in states located along the Gulf of Mexico.

Data Sets
  • Population Data: Census Tracts
  • Sea Level Rise Data, CRESIS
Methodology

Census tract data was clipped down to the spatial extent of the Gulf states (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida) using ArcGIS 10.1.  To insure accurate population values, the population density of each census tract was calculated.  Using the downloaded sea level rise file, the gulf states shapefiles were trimmed down to three files containing the spatial extent of  one, three, and six meter sea level rise.  Using field geometry, I calculated the adjusted area of  each census tract that is affected by each level of sea level rise.  To obtain the population affected per census track, the newly calculated area was multiplied by the original population density using the Field Calculator.  To acquire the total number of people affected by one, three, and six meter sea level rise per state, summary statistics were run on each file.  The sum of the adjust ed population field was calculated, and the state was used as a case field to separate the calculations by state.  The calculated populations affected per state where then exported and uploaded in ArcGIS for plotting.

Conclusions

This study found that an increase in sea level yields a positive increase in the number of people affected.  Due to its low elevation and higher area of coast line, more people are affected by sea level rise in Florida than the other four states. Florida displays the greatest disparity between a three and six meter rise in sea level, most likely do to its overall low elevation. Louisiana is the second most affected followed by Texas, Mississippi, and Alabama.

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Wednesday, December 4, 2013

California Water Runoff Response to Stongest El Nino and La Ninno Events 1950-2012

Background Information

El Nino events exhibit higher than normal Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures and increased rainfall over the Southern United States.  In contrast, La Nina events are cooler than normal ocean temperatures and increased rainfall over Northwestern and Eastern United States.  The Earth System Research Laboratory ranked 1974 as the strongest La Nina and 1983 the strongest El Nino event since 1880.  Water runoff data is used to reflect the impact on the California climate; data older than 1950 was eliminated due to the level of development within water monitoring systems.  La Nina and El Nino extremes were selected to demonstrate the contrast in the Southern Oscillation System.   

Data Sets
  • State Boundaries: National Atlas
  •  1:250,000 Hydrologic Units: USGS
  • Hydrologic Unit Runoff: USGS
Methodology

Hydrologic Unit Runoff data was opened in Microsoft Excel, averaged to derive the mean annual run off from 1950-2012.  Data was then trimmed down to the maximum La Nina year (1974), maximum El Nino year (1984), and average runoff.  All data sets where then uploaded into ArcGIS 10.1 for analysis.  The altered Excel file was joined to the Hydrologic Unit (HUC) shapefile  The California state boundary was selected and exported into a separate shape file for mapping purposes.  The projection was then set and equalized among all files.  The joined HUC data as them clipped down to the spatial extent of California.

Yearly runoff per watershed was normalized by the average watershed runoff since 1950.  A map of average runoff is included to compare the normal statewide distribution. Three maps were generated in this study, one of which plotting the mean annual runoff withing the state of California.  To compare the run off distribution and intensity.  Run off values measure during each of the ENSO year was normalized by the mean annual runoff for each HUC area. 

Conclusions

Data revealed the La Nina event experienced less water runoff than the 1983 El Nino event, where higher  values of precipitation are concentrated in California’s Northern half.  During El Nino, California experienced higher runoff with the highest concentrations shifted southwards to central California.  

 Correlating the year to the runoff reveals that the graph’s extremes are associated with the maximum events.  The 1974 La Nina produced the lowest annual runoff, and the 1983 El Nino the highest.  Upon further inspection, strong Southern Oscillation events can be correlated to fluctuations in runoff data.  Also to be noted, there is a lag in the water runoff response to the dated events.  Water runoff data appears to broadly reflect expected conditions during El Nino/La Nina events in California

Map Links